Academia Nomad

Putin is isolated on the world stage, and humiliated by Ukraine in the battle field.

The war is in its 6th day, and despite having the third largest military capability (after US and China), Russian military have not taken any major cities of Ukraine.

There are several reasons for this. First, Russia is facing supply and logistic problems. The military planners took the most ambitious strategy: attack Ukraine on three fronts. By attacking on three fronts, Russia has overextended its supply.

Second, Russian forces grossly underestimated Ukraine’s fighting spirit. In 2014 Russia strolled in and took over Donbas and Crimea. Since then Ukraine built up a relatively capable military. But more so, civilians have harkened to the call to take up arms and fight.

Third, the West have come together against Russia in a way never seen before. Led by the EU and US, the world have sanctioned Russia. Including Putin himself, his close associates, Russian Central Bank, international money transfer messaging SWIFT, and this taking a hit on Russia.

But the most important loss for Putin is, by invading Ukraine, he created more enemies with nations close to Russia. Germany, for instance, broke its long-standing policy not to supply military arsenal to any country. For the first time Germany is sending 1, 000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-craft weapons. Neutral countries including Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, and Ireland are sending assistance to Ukraine.

Even China, which signed an agreement for closer ties with Russia a month ago is not helping Russia, instead calling for negotiations to end the conflict.

US and NATO have used this opportunity to send more military support to NATO in close proximity to Russia.

When this war is over, Russia will be economically paralysed, have far less supporters in the international arena, and have a neighbouring Europe that is armed to the teeth and every imagined during peace times.

It was a gross blunder on Putin’s part

By Alan Robson, ANU Department of Pacific Affairs, UPNG Political Science

This is part one of Alan ROBSON’s take on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In this piece, Alan argues that the West pushed too far. Putin didn’t have much choice but to act. Part two he balances the argument but looking at Putin’s own ambitions to expand.

This is part one of Alan ROBSON’s take on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In this piece, Alan argues that the West pushed too far. Putin didn’t have much choice but to act. Part two he balances the argument by looking at Putin’s own ambitions to expand.

The current European crisis is largely a product of the US and Western European post-Cold War optimism that Russia would Balkanise into a neoliberal mess and their refusal to accept Putin’s reversal of this process. In order words, the US and West wanted Russia had a long standing ambitions to break Russia into small states like Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus etc.

Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine followed on continual failure to get Zelensky and the Western Ukrainians to accept the implementation of the Minsk agreement, coupled with Zelesnky’s (Ukraine’s President) recent comment about the need for Ukraine to have nuclear weapons, implying a commitment to joining NATO. The Minsk agreement was signed in 2014 after Russia and Ukraine fought over Crimea and Donbas. Russia pushed for both regions to become independent from Ukraine. Both regions are Russian speaking people which became part of Ukraine when Soviet Union disintegrated in the late 1980s.

For his part, Zelensky’s policy options have been severely hedged by the presence of large numbers of neo-fascists in West Ukraine, which is why Putin has said he will be going after para-military groups like the Azov Battalion, now well-entrenched in the Ukrainian armed forces and a constant threat to any voices of moderation in Kiev. Finally all this was followed by accelerating Ukrainian army attacks on the militia lines in the Donbass.

Putin’s long speech defending his decision to attack Ukraine, far from being a rave, is a very good summary of the post-cold war failures of the West that have culminated in the crisis.

(https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/24/what-putin-says-are-the-causes-aims-of-russias-military-action/).

There are also balanced comments by Varoufakis on Democracy Now.

(https://www.democracynow.org/2022/2/24/russia_invasion_ukraine_yanis_varoufakis)

Alan Robson is a research fellow at the Australian National University’s Department of Pacific Affairs. He is a longtime fellow at the University of Papua New Guinea’s Political Science Department. He specialises in International Relations, Russia & US politics, and Southeast Asia Politics. This is part one of a two part series on Russia-Ukraine war.

When the US told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that they could get him out of Ukraine, he replied:

“I need ammunition, not a ride.”

US official confirmed Ukraine President Volodymyr rejected an offer from the American government to evacuate Kyiv.

A senior American intelligence official with direct knowledge of the conversation quoted the president as saying that “the fight is here” and that he needed anti-tank ammunition, “not a ride.”

Volodymyr Zelensky is just one of many many Ukrainians who are standing up to defend their country. Members of parliament, public servants, athletes, men as old as 60 years old, and as young as 18 years old.

Among them are the Klitschko brothers. These two brothers are former world boxing champions.

Vitali Klitschko, the former WBC heavyweight world champion took up arms to fight for his country. By his side is younger brother, Wladimir, a former unified heavyweight champion. Wladimir became the major of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, after boxing. He is defending Kyiv.

Dozens have already died and more than 100,000 are fleeing.

Zelensky’s whereabouts were being kept secret after he told European leaders in a call Thursday that he was Russia’s No. 1 target — and that they might not see him again alive again. His office later released a video of him standing with senior aides outside the presidential office and saying that he and other government officials would stay in the capital.

Ukrainian servicemen stand by a deactivated Russian military multiple rocket launcher on the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Friday, February 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky posts a video of himself and his team outside the presidential headquarters in Kyiv, on February 25, 2022. (Screenshot/Twitter)

The Ukrainians are putting up a very spirited fight, but in the long run, Russians are better equipped and have advanced artillery.

Putin expected a swift victory, but met a much better prepared Ukrainian fighters than in 2014 when he invaded and occupied Crimea and Donbas.

The fighting has reached Kyiv, and Ukraine may fall. But when we remember the Russian-Ukrainian war, let’s remember this:

That Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation. And ordinary Ukrainians picked up arms and defended their country to their deaths.

A question many analysts keep avoiding is:

Why did Russia invade Ukraine in February 2022, and not two years ago, or February 2021, or earlier between 2016 – 2018?

After all, Putin was as evil in 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and Donbas, as he is now. These two regions were part of Ukraine. Russia waited until February 2022, to conduct a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

The two possible reasons lie in US President Joe Biden’s two fold decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan and stop drilling of sale gas in the US.

Afghanistan

The US withdrawal in Afghanistan was chaotic and messy. Even the liberal media outlets like CNN couldn’t believe the abrupt withdrawal of US troops, which left their Afghanistan allies vulnerable to slaughter from the Taliban.

Everyone agreed that US should leave Afghanistan. But the rushed manner in which it was done revealed Biden didn’t understand the Middle East. He admitted later that he didn’t expect Taliban to move in so fast. Women, children, and Afghans who assisted US soldiers, and US marines died in the process.

Putin watched the unwillingness of Biden to help allies and partners when Afghanistan was left without help. He knew Biden wouldn’t be counted on to help Ukraine.

Oil & Gas

Even now, the sanctions of US and EU against Russia doesn’t include Russian export of oil & gas to EU.

This is the most absurd exception because we all know that Putin’s war machine is primarily driven by the oil and gas industry. But it’s also understandable. In that if US and EU target the oil and gas sector of Russia, it will plunge Europe into darkness because EU relies on Russian oil! Especially Germany. And EU is nothing without Germany.

You would think Putin had calculated that into the equation before invading Ukraine in February 2022.

What is Biden’s role in this?

When Biden became president in 2020, he inherited a US oil and gas industry that had become “net-exporter” by 2020.

Essentially US had sufficient oil & gas from its own drillings, that it exported the surplus. The sale gas industry was booming.

Biden shut this down. If this was in operation, US would have supplied Europe, and sanctioned Russian oil and gas.

Biden’s push for eliminating sale drilling in the US had to do with climate change concerns. But it’s ironic that EU is still using climate-destroying oil and gas from Russia. Even the US continues to import oil from the Middle East.

And more importantly, US and EU cannot sanction Russian oil & gas because EU relies on this “dirty” source of electricity.

In summary, Putin saw an opportunity to attack now. Because Biden has created the opening.

There may be more, but going by media reports since 2020, three Australians have broken PNG laws, and have waked free. A combination of outdated laws, and police negligence have helped.

The first case involved an Australian pilot who crashed an aeroplane at the outskirts of Port Moresby. He was attempting to fly 500kg of cocaine out from Port Moresby when the plane crashed.

The PNG Drug Act 1952 doesn’t list cocaine as illicit or illegal. The Australian pilot was not charged for the drugs. He was only charged for illegally entry: entering PNG without a passport.

In the same month (26 July), the Australian Federal Police website reported that 36-year-old New South Wales man was arrested at Atherton for drug trafficking. He was charged with:

Conspiracy to import commercial quantities of border controlled drugs., contrary to Section 307.1(1) and Section 11.5(1) Criminal Code Act 1995 (Cth);

Providing material support or resources to a criminal organisation, contrary to section 390.41 Criminal Code Act 1995 (Cth).

The maximum penalty if convicted of these offences is life imprisonment.

The difference between PNG & Australian laws on drugs cannot be more clearer than these two cases.

Then in November 2021, police discovered a methamphetamine (meth) laboratory at the Sanctuary Hotel in Port Moresby. The man was not charged with drug offences because the Drug Act doesn’t account for meth. He was, however, charged with the illegal possession of weapons. Police described the outdated drug laws as a “slap in the face” given the resources and time put into investigating, “yet we cannot take it to the court process”

According to Section 37 (2) of the PNG Constitution, a person cannot be charged for an offence not provided by law. In essence, this lengthy provision was interpreted by the Supreme Court of PNG as:

“The fundamental proposition is: nobody may be convicted of an offence that is not defined by, and the penalty for which is not prescribed by written law. (SC REF NOS 2, 3 & 5 0F 2014).”

Who should be blamed for criminal cartels walking free in PNG?

The answer will surprise some of you. The blame lies squarely at the feet of PNG politicians. According to sections 99 and 100 of PNG Constitution, on the MPs can repeal, amend or make laws. If the MPs don’t do their jobs, no one else will.

You have been led to believe that the MPs are project managers, service deliverers and in some cases, even seen as walking ATMs. That is simply not their job.

The third case was a result of police negligence, or ignorance. Whether they were not educated in the matter is anyone’s guess.

Sean Honey, an Australian, was arrested for six counts of weapons possession and one count of cannabis possession. The court found that police used the wrong form to search his premises. Instead of Form 3, police used Form 4 to conduct the search. As per Search Act 1977, and Search Regulations 1977, Form 3 shall be used for such searches.

According to former Commissioner and current Secretary for Law Reform Commission, about 370 PNG laws are outdated by at least a century, and are of no practical use in the modern age.

But instead of debating, repealing and amending these laws, MPs are busy delivering services in their respective provinces. Instead of performing their law making duties, they adjourn Parliament to avoid votes of no confidences. They descend into two camps, and every end of the grace period, hoping to be the ones to get into the lucrative government side so they can have their hands on the state coffers.

For 2022, ask you MP, what is your main role as a representative of this electorate?

If he says “service delivery”, chase him out of your village. He doesn’t know his job.