Academia Nomad

Pangu Pati MPs travelling to the opposition camp

Pangu Pati, the leading coalition partner in the current PNG government has split. My test for a successful government change in PNG is when there is a significant split with the ruling coalition party. This is because the ruling coalition party is usually the biggest party. Currently Pangu has 59 MPs, about half of PNG’s seats in parliament.

Now that Pangu has spilt, what happens next?

Pangu Split: What Happens Now?

1. The Deputy Speaker has instructed the opposition to submit a new notice for a vote of no confidence. The first step for the opposition is to decide on a candidate for Prime Minister between tonight and Tuesday.
2. On Tuesday, when Parliament meets, the opposition will submit a new notice for a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister James Marape.
3. The notice must include the name of the alternate Prime Minister, a reason of national interest for the vote, and must be signed by 10% of the MPs in the PNG Parliament (10% of 118 MPs).
4. The Parliament Business Committee will meet at lunchtime on Wednesday to review the notice. Their sole responsibility is to ensure the notice meets the technical requirements outlined in point 3.
5. On Thursday, Parliament will be informed of the notice as the first order of business and then adjourn for a week. By the following Thursday, June 4, a new Prime Minister could be in place if the opposition is successful.
6. The process may not be straightforward. The government-dominated Parliament Business Committee might delay the meeting on Wednesday. Additionally, the government could persuade an MP who signed the motion to switch sides, invalidating the motion, as seen with Gordon Wesley.
7. If the government changes, the new Prime Minister will have an 18-month grace period starting June 4, 2024.
8. If James Marape retains his seat, he will not be protected by a grace period, allowing the opposition to mount repeated votes of no confidence.
9. The period between now and June 4 is long, and in PNG politics, many unforeseen events can occur. Thus, predicting an outcome is highly uncertain.

A change in the prime minister’s position is needed given the chaotic rule of James Marape. But will the next prime minister be any better? That answer lies in who the next prime minister will be. The prime minister’s seat has to go to Allan Bird for there to be any hope of change.

Rainbow Paita’s name often floats around when there is an attempt at vote of no confidence, either as an operative or candidate for the prime minister’s position. Paita has all the qualities for a PNG prime minister, but it’s not the qualities you are thinking of:

1. Prime Ministers in PNG are changed from within

Almost all governments in PNG are changed from within. And this goes all the way back to Chan replacing Somare in the first vote of no confidence in early 80s to Marape filling the vacancy in 2019 when O’Neill resigned to avoid humiliation of a vote of no confidence. Paita is part of the “inside” team of Pangu and government caucus. It wouldn’t be a surprise, and if he emerges as a contender.

2. Ambiguous

Clearly principled politicans rarely get the high post. PNG is a prime Melanesian case where ambiguities and consensus and compromise reigns. If you are a Gary Juffa or a Brian Kramer or an Allan Bird, you have set yourself a very clear high standard. Public expectations for you to play by the rules is very high, otherwise you’d appear to be the embodiment of hypocrisy. This is why all three men have no followers in parliament: either one men party or no party men.

PNG’s politicans are so forgiving: they criticise each other, and then get together, forgive each other, and get along. This was the case with Peter O’Neill (remember Douglas Tomurisea saying sorry to O’Neill with the life of an innocent pig?) and Marape (remember the photo of Marape and William Duma hugging after Duma failed to replace Marape as a PM candidate and then voted him as PM, only to “slide unconsciously” to and fro? – Duma’s own words)

Rainbow Paita is from the same fabric as Peter O’Neill and James Marape. He’s the type that would work with his enemies and forgive others in the name of advancing the coalition’s interests.

Don’t get me wrong: this is not the preferred type of leadership. A principled government or prime minister is always preferable, it’s just that it doesn’t make you the prime minister in PNG.

3. Anyone but Marape or O’Neill

By now, Papua New Guineans just want the prime minister replaced. It doesn’t matter who, so long as it’s not Marape or O’Neill. If you have the ability to break the government, you get the social liscense of the populace, and therefore, their MPs’ support.

4. My preference would still be Allan Bird. But for that to happen, we need a miracle of biblical proportion. MPs who’d put the national interest first.

The views expressed here doesn’t claim Rainbow Paita is confirmed to be contesting the prime minister’s position. It’s all social media rumours. The point of this piece is that for one to become a prime minister in PNG, you’d need a Rainbo-like characteristics. It’s not the preferred characteristics, but historically it’s the type that maketh the prime minister.

Its time to Take PNG Forward

I disagree with the position of the IMF and World Bank in relation to the devaluation of the Kina now under way.

The IMF believes that by depreciating the Kina, this will encourage exports and make PNG production cheaper. In fact the opposite is true.

In the last 49 years, the PNG economy has not diversified much and therefore a significant depreciation is not going to automatically result in increased production and exports. We had a significant depreciation 24 years ago and that did not result in any significant increases of production in anything. It just led to more hardship for ordinary people.

This is because PNG has not invested in the productive capacity of the economy, hence it is not possible to increase production. Only the extractive sector is able to do that but almost all of them are operating at peak or declining capacity.

I just saw a 10kg bag of rice increase from K50 to K56 a bag. This is the second price increase this year. Depreciation is already hurting our ordinary people. While some low income earners are getting a tax break, the vast majority of our people in the informal sector cannot access similar assistance.

The Marape government in chasing cheap loans from IMF/WB and having resorted to printing money may have unknowingly placed a rope around the necks of ordinary citizens.

I believe a reasonable trading band of around 30 USc and 40 AUc is what we should be aiming for.

As I wrote in my previous article, we must restrain government borrowings and improve fiscal discipline. We must live within our means.

We must also redirect spending not just on economic enablers but also on the productive capacity of the various sectors. We must also look at tax incentives to encourage private sector investment to help diversify our economy.

We must decentralize our government structure as a means of encouraging spread of private sector investments. The engine room for growth is in the provinces, not in Waigani.

We must have a smaller central government that oversees provinces and doesn’t compete with them.

We need to expand private sector investment and support private sector to grow both the economy and jobs. It is not government that grows the economy, private sector does that. Too much government control, coupled with corruption is killing our economy.

The Marape Government has borrowed K32 billion in 5 years but they have only proven that government is incapable of growing the economy because economic growth has simply lagged behind government borrowing. I hope all current and future leaders learn something from this grave mistake and not repeat it in the future.

We have a situation in our country where the government thinks it should be running businesses and it fails miserably. We should focus on governing and leave business to the private sector.

It’s time for a reset. Marape has taken PNG backwards by 20 years. It’s time to take PNG forward.