Academia Nomad

How long is Short Term Pain?

By Allan Bird, East Sepik Province Governor

Yesterday, while explaining the difference between Devaluation of the Kina and Depreciation of the Kina, my good friend Treasurer Stuckey said the Devaluation of the Kina as recommended by IMF and World Bank will give us “short term pain for long term gain.” There’s that popular Marape Government phrase again.

When Marape was pushing to close down Porgera, he told us its “short term pain for long term gain.” Porgera was closed for 5 years and now we know we won’t gain any direct benefits for another 10 years. So is short term pain 15 years? Is that the Marape definition of “short term”?

When Marape was renegotiating Papua LNG after the previous Treasurer Hon Charles Abel had already negotiated for 58% net cash for PNG, PMJM said “short term pain for long term gain” that’s why he stopped the project and commenced a new round of negotiations.

Had we stuck to the original Papua LNG schedule, Total would have invested $13b (K52b) and created tens of thousands of jobs for our people in the last 3 years and Papua LNG would have exported first gas this year. Now we hear Papua LNG might start in 2028 or 2030. So short term pain is 10 years in this case.

Porgera and Papua LNG would have reduced our need to borrow money and they would have fixed our FX problems and our cost of living crisis. Our PM decided that we needed 15 years of pain.
My reading of the chaos created by all these incompetent decisions and the missed opportunities is that an economic turn around is probably going to happen by 2032. So the decisions of the Marape government will result in another 8 years of short term pain for our people.
So I assume the Marape definition of short term pain is 13-15 years. Interestingly the Budget Repair plan that required K34b in borrowings over 5 years, is a 13 year plan.

While PM and Treasurer speak of pain in mathematical terms, the actual pain felt by real people is astronomical. People can endure perhaps 5 years of pain but asking our people to endure 15 years of pain? Is this acceptable to our MPs and our people? Do we want another 10 years of Marape’s deliberately initiated pain?
15 years of pain. That is the Marape Plan. That’s his definition of short term pain. Are we the people of PNG happy with that? Are we all happy to take another 10 years of pain? Can our people survive that?

Most MPs want to get re-elected in 2027, well guess what? The economy will actually be worse in 2027 than it is now. So should the country elect the very people who created the problem and didn’t lift a finger to fix it?
Because that is the Marape promise, 15 years of short term pain in the richest, black, christian nation on earth.

It’s Covenant Day! No Repentance Day

Founding PNG Prime Minister Michael Somare who signed the Covenant

By Sahar Shalom

“To all my beloved brothers and sisters in Papua New Guinea,

Covenant Day: The True Meaning of 26 August

I wanted to share with you how the tradition of 26 August started and clarify some misconceptions and distortions in relation to it.

In 2007 Michael Somare, the nation’s “grand chief” and Prime Minister at the time, signed on behalf of the people a “New Covenant” with the God of Israel (attached is a copy of the original document).

In this Covenant, Somare on behalf of the people invoked the ancient prophetic covenant between God and the people of Israel found in Yirmiyahu (Jeremiah) chapter 31, where God promises to install His Torah, His Law (Spiritual Divine Instructions) in the hearts and minds of the people. In this way, everyone know God in a direct and personal way, without the need for any intermediary, teachers, rabbis, pastors, etc.

I encourage you to read Jeremiah 31 and see what these words mean for you.

The possibility of living in such a way is open to every human being, as affirmed by many righteous individuals including Yeshua ben Yosef of Nazareth and my own personal experience with God. Every human being can access a space within his or her soul which is pure, holy and divine, where The Creator’s Law and Will are revealed and then realized and followed. This is a purely individual and spiritual thing which goes beyond any religious dogma, scripture or tradition; it’s the intimate spiritual relationship that one develops with God, something that no other human being has power over.

Somare asked The Creator to make this covenant applicable to the people of Papua New Guinea. So it is not just words on paper or a promise or belief, but a living experience and a reality that the people know and share.

In the first few years after 2007, the event of the signing of the New Covenant was celebrated as Covenant Day. In a few years however, it was changed to “Repentance Day”, the name by which it is widely known today. This created confusion and distorted the original meaning of 26 August. Today, people go on “repenting” to God, however most of them not even aware of the covenant that this nation has with God upon which this day is based.

The New Covenant should be remembered by the people and the 26 August celebrated as ‘Covenant Day’. Otherwise, 26 August becomes a tradition without substance and meaning. It should be a day of spiritual celebration and upliftment for having a covenant with God and learning how to uphold it, with some of the people already living up to this Covenant by realizing and following this unwritten Divine Law of Peace and Benevolence found at the innermost and purest part of your soul.

I can tell you, as a person of Israelite-Jewish decent, that making a covenant with God is something to be taken very seriously. I and the people to whom I was born know that the people may forget or distort a covenant, however God always remember and will hold the people responsible for their promises, even many generations after. We have been experiencing and witnessing to that for more than 3,000 years.

May you find the strength and faith, as well as lightness and joy, to stand up to the New Covenant, even if it takes some learning, and experience the blessing of having a direct and personal relationship with The Creator and the Mercy (חסד) and Light of the God of Israel being shone upon you.

Shalom שלום, Peace!

Shahar
26 August 2024”

Sahar Shalom is a lawyer of Jewish origin. Probably the only Jewish to study at the University of Papua New Guinea, or be trained as lawyer in PNG.

The original document signed by Michael Somare is attached to below:

PNG: a transactional society

We pay 💰 for everything in PNG

Reports of paying criminals K300, 000 for the release of hostages is troubling, but not a surprise. In PNG, we pay for everything:

Our politicians bribe electoral officials to win elections

Prime minister candidates pay other politicians to join various camps to form government

When prime ministers underperform, but pay other politicians to support them stay in power regardless of collapsing state of affairs

Unregistered vehicles pay police men and traffic authorities to have the vehicles on the road

District Development Authorities, City Commissions, Special Purpose Authorities, Public Health Authorities and Provicial Assemblies pay officers of relevant departments to fast track fundings

A customer walks into the bank, and is signaled to go over to an empty counter and is served whilst others are standing in line. The teller gets paid outside afterwards in cash

University students pay lectures to change grades

Investigators are paid to misplace files and evidence so critical cases don’t get past the committal hearing at the district courts

We are a transactional society. We don’t rely on systems, we rely on payments. We only have systems for symbolic purposes to meet the requirements of an independent state. We reform our systems and enact legislations to put in place initiatives such as Independent Commission Against Corruption and Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives as they are required by IMF, World Bank and ADB. These are the institutions we borrow money from, so we put in reforms they prescribe. We have no intention of making the reforms work.

The problem with paying our way in and out of every situation is that there is no incentive to make the systems work. The elite benefit the most in a transactional society because they can pay. The rest suffer.

Cargo Cult

Former PM O’Neill, and Current PM Marape at the background

The problem with Papua New Guineans is that they don’t make the link between their votes, and quality of life.

If you voted a Pangu endorsed candidate, you were voting Marape for PM.

When you voted PNC endorsed candidate, you were voting O’Neill for PM.

When you voted John Kaupa, well, you can be forgiven because he’s the only one that said “good morning” to you when everyone else said “oi” to you. Jokes aside, you were voting for a yo-yo.

When you voted Duma, you were voting for reckless management of state owned enterprises. And someone who “unconsciously slides” from one end to another.

When you voted Juffa, you voted for thunder without rain (I didn’t say it, someone said it).

When you voted Paita, you voted a clone of Marape.

This cargo cult mentality that you can vote a devil and have a saint in parliament because he quoted scriptures during elections is absurd.

The rural population is the worst. They suffer the most when corruption eats up the money that’s supposed to improve their lives. As 85% of the population, they have the largest say in who gets elected. I don’t buy the nonsense that they lack education. It doesn’t take a degree to know someone is corrupt. After 50 years of independence, you should put two and two together.

So when the enumerators don’t show up for the census with a tablet, or the PNG Connect road leads to nowhere, or Masaratis rust away and no one is held accountable, look at the stars and count your blessings.

The wisdom that guided your ancestors to protect the genes that produced you has been dumped for coke and lamb flaps and beer and K50 during elections.

How many bad decisions can PNG take? – Allan Bird

Allan Bird

By Allan Bird, Governor of East Sepik

I spent 5 years in government as a nice flower pot, a decoration of Parliament. I disagreed with many bad decisions of government. But you can only say so in caucus, otherwise you are not a team player.

Government operates by the PM getting what he wants, the Ministers getting what they want and the back benches getting what they want.

Most MPs can’t tell the difference between national interest and personal interest. We think the two are the same thing.

What about PNGans? Is the ordinary Joe in PNG getting what he or she wants from the country? Is the ordinary Joe looking at a bright future in PNG? All the indicators say otherwise.

As we continue to experience power issues, law and order, FX, unemployment, inflation, cost of living, etc, etc. There is no long term gain. A select few lucky people are benefiting handsomely from government while the majority are struggling to buy tinfish and rice.

Our short term pain is now long term pain.

PNG is probably K100b in debt right now and the hole is getting deeper. It’s like a cancer patient and no one is willing to cut out the cancer.

When you speak against the government and its bad decisions, government supporters will attack you. Simply because they are part of the ecosystem, they are feeding in the public trough and you are threatening their lifeline, their food supply.

If an international organization, country or anyone else supports a government that is intent on staying in power at the expense of our people: they are the enemy.

Make no mistake, PNG is failing, its failing because the weight of all the bad decisions is killing the country.

If we don’t change those decisions, if we keep making bad decisions, if we keep choosing all the wrong options, there is only one place we end up. And that’s not a very happy place. We are in it now and it’s not improving.

PNG needs a competent government that will cut back expenditure on unnecessary things, reduce borrowing, stop printing money, reduce the decline in cost of living, reduce cost of doing business and give confidence to investors and consumers. This government is incapable of doing that.

We can’t continue on this path or the situation in PNG will continue to get worse and our people will be affected the most.

Every leader must choose a side. We can support a government that is making life difficult for our people or change course. I, like some of my colleagues; choose the side of our ordinary voiceless people and I will remain until things improve.

My position is simple, I can’t be party to bad decisions anymore. I can’t be a useless flower pot anymore. I have chosen a side, I have chosen to fight for ordinary, struggling PNGans. PNG needs a rescue and I will fight with the rescue team.

Any MP who wants to be PM and chooses a different path to the Marape pathway: will have my full support.