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This is Part II of the “2022 PNG Outlook” series. This part looks at Security. In Part I we covered politics and economics. You can read Part I here. Due to the increasing multifaceted security issues facing PNG, this part is dedicated to security alone. Governance will be covered in a separate blog as Part III.

Security

The concept of security here is used in the widest sense to include non-traditional security challenges. In fact it’s focused on non-security challenges as I think that is where the main security challenges lie. In 2020 and 2021, PNG faced serious security challenges on many front, ranging from COVID-19 to cyber attacks and tribal fights.

Many in PNG do not see COVID-19 as a security risk, as evidenced in the high level of vaccines hesitancy in the country. Just under 2% of PNG’s population is vaccinated against COVID-19, though this should not be attributed exclusively to vaccine hesitancy. Tough terrains, porous PNG-Indonesian border, misuse of COVID-19 funds, and towards the end of 2021, cyber attack on the Finance Department of PNG have hindered effective response to COVID-19.

The advantage for PNG has been the lack of inter-connectivity between the rest of PNG and the hot spots like Port Moresby and Western Province. These natural barriers have prevented movement of people, limiting the spread of COVID-19 at a scale experienced in other countries with well developed road networks which allows easy access form on place to another. It is an opportunity for PNG to speed up vaccination. PNG’s health infrastructure is weak, and hospitals lack proper amenities and medical nurses and doctors. There are about 500 medical doctors nation wide, serving a population of 9 million. We have seen from Goroka’s experience in 2021 how deadly COVID-19 can be when it hits provinces outside of Port Moresby in high numbers.

The main test will be the 2022 elections. PNG elections are known for drawing huge crowds during rallies. It will be very difficult to maintain any sort of social distancing, or enforce restrictions during the elections. With the ease at which Omicorn is transmitted, huge crowds at political rallies will be a recipe for disaster. 

Other threats such as cybercrime used to be a distant concept, but the 2021 cyber attack shows how vulnerable PNG is. In October 2021, hackers introduced ransomware, a form of virus into PNG’s integrated financial management system within the Finance Department. The hackers locked out the system and asked for payment in return for release of control of the system back to the government. Although the system was restored, and no ransom was paid, the extent of the damage remains unknown. PNG continues to experience delays of payments and other financial procedures following the attack. Cyber security will be a prominent feature in PNG’s security landscape in years to come. PNG may even become a battle ground for geopolitics and cyberwar.

Chinese Company Huawei built underwater internet cables connecting PNG’s 14 Maritime provinces, whilst Australia built the underwater internet cable connecting Port Moresby to Sydney. Huawei also built PNG’s national data center, but to repair it PNG government requested Australia for funding. These complex cyber space requires highly qualified and technical expertise on PNG’s part to make sense of, and protect PNG interests.

In addition to that, transnational criminals have found PNG to be an easy target for drug trafficking. In 2020 PNG police discovered about 500kg of cocaine in Port Moresby when the plane transporting the drugs crashed during take off. Due to outdated laws, the offenders were not charged for possession and transport of cocaine. Again in 2021, a methane laboratory was discovered in a hotel in PNG, but the offender was not charged for manufacturing meth because the PNG laws don’t cover meth. In late 2021 a new law was passed to accommodate for this lack, but another serious issue remains: capacity of PNG law enforcement agencies to investigate these crimes. Investigations for both cases mentioned here were assisted by Australian and US law enforcement agencies respectively.

Australian counterparts monitored the cocaine movement that led to the arrest. For the meth production case, US authorities identified suspicious substances headed for PNG from US, and notified PNG authorities. Question remains whether PNG law enforcement authorities have the capacity, funding and technology to monitor transnational crimes.

Another challenge for the PNG’s law enforcement agencies is the porous border between PNG and Indonesia, and the illegal, unreported and undocumented fishing in PNG waters. There are about eight illegal entery points along the 700km PNG-Indonesia border which remains largely unmonitored. Drugs and weapons pass through these points. Outside of Port Moresby, PNG’s Western Province, which borders Indonesia has been one of the provinces leading in COVID-19 cases. These cases are believed to have come from Indonesia.

In late November 2021, the National Fisheries Authority reported that illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) fishing is the single most significant threat to long term sustainability of PNG’s marine resources. PNG loses about K400 million through IUU every year. 

Human security in the form of sorcery related killings, especially the tutore of women and children is an eye sore. Tribal fights in the highlands do not seem to have an end. In 2019, about 20 women, children and a pregnant woman were killed in a tribal war. This is just one of many that’s goes on. Tommy Baker, a criminal gang leader who was killed in the 2022 New Year’s eve has been confronting police in gun fights, burnt a police station and killed a policeman, in addition to string of robberies.

There is a lack of consciousness of the state’s presence in some of these communities, and the idea that the state has a monopoly over violence is seriously under question in PNG.

There is need for PNG to dramatically increase funding for health, security and law and order. It has to be a long-term, consistent commitment. 

Climate change will contribute to be an issue beyond PNG’s ability to address, despite the first potential climate refugee in the world coming from Carteret Islands in PNG. What PNG can do is devise an effect resettlement machanism, which not only caters for climate change refugees, but those displaced by disasters such as Manam in Madang and Kadovar in East Sepik.

For an overview of threats facing PNG, read this article.

As we begin the year 2022, we take a brief look at the defining issues that will shape PNG’s social, political and economic outlook. It is not possible to talk about everything in one blog, but take this an introduction of the issues we will expand on through out the year. The first part looks at the political and economic outlook, The second part will look at the security and governance outlook.

1. Politics

Writs for the PNG election will be issued in April 2022, and parliament will dissolve for elections around June. Most of June and July will be take up by campaigns, polling, and counting. Government will be formed by the end of July, and normalcy will return in around August 2022.

On average, half of the incumbent MPs in PNG lose the election. This means you can expect half of the current PNG MPs to lose in the 2022 election. It’s difficult to predict who will be among the other half who will be re-elected. The trend seems to be that those who have served longer than two terms are will make majority of the numbers of those that will be re-elected.

Elections have progressively become violent over the years. It’s an extension of the law and order break down and should not be laid at the feet of the electoral officials or police. The police-citizen ratio in PNG is one for the worst in the region, and lack of investment and politicization of the police hierarchy (revolving door of police commissioners) has weaken the ability of police to maintain law and order.

In 2017 alone, about 100 people died as a direct result of elections. This doesn’t take into account deaths following elections – elections related violence turns tribal and continues on to the next election. Bribery, intimidation, and electoral corruption has become a constant in PNG politics. These will feature prominently. To read about what to expect for the 2022 elections, read this 2017 election observation report as most issues will be recurring. 

The election will be followed by chaotic lobbying to form the government. The Governor General is required by law to invite the party that has the largest number of MPs to form the government. It is not clear Pangu Party will have the numbers to form the government in 2022. Marape has just been with Pangu for two years. And division within Pangu is common knowledge: for instance, Morobe Governor Ginson Soanu and Marape consinute to clash over Wofu-Gopu Gold mine. The Governor is against the mine’s proposed deep sea waste disposal center whilst Marape wants to go ahead with the Mine. Morobe voted eight Pangu MPs in 2017, but that was a Pangu party led by Sam Basil. 

The next issue will be whether the MPs in the current coalition will stick together if they win. The constant party hopping which saw National Alliance, United Resource, Pangu, People’s Congress Party, and United Labour Party trading places between opposition and government means the coalition will not hold up.

Look at the next government as a clean slate, where coalition will be built on what MPs get out of it following 2022 elections. Past alliances will not count.

The first 18 months following August 2022 will be covered by a grace period under which the government cannot be removed through a vote of no confidence. But by February 2024, you should expect a vote of no confidence. Attempts for a vote of no confidence is a permanent feature of PNG politics, so it’s a guarantee that by 2024, there will be attempts to remove the prime minister, regardless of how well the prime minister performs! 

This instability will go one until mid-2026, when things slow down for the 2027 election (a vote of no confidence with the intent to replace the PM cannot be instituted within 12 months of the anniversary of the return of writs of the of the previous general election).

2. PNG Economy

The PNG economy relies on the rise and fall of commodity prices because it’s a resource intensive economy. For a more detailed study on PNG economy, read this excellent study by ANU and UPNG researchers. 

Due to complex agreements and arrangements, companies like Exxon Mobil don’t pay much tax to the government. It’s not a tax holiday. It’s an arrangement that allows Exxon to repay the debt accumulated to construct the PNG LNG first, and when such debt is paid off, only then will PNG see the real benefits of LNG. Others like Ramu Nickel enjoy tax holidays. These arrangements have resulted in low revenues for the government. 

The non-resource sectors like agriculture and fisheries, have generated better revenues for the state, but remain small compared to the resource sector. Resource sector here means mining, oil and gas. 

Things may improve with Pogera Gold Mine expected to start operations in 2022. If Wofu-Golpu proposed mine goes ahead, the construction phase will bring in foreign currency and that will improve PNG market that is suffering from lack of foreign currency (PNG Central Bank has been rationing foreign currency which has affected business). But both the Wofu-Golpu and Freda Mine in Sepik plains are facing resistance from local communities and environmentalists. It is not clear whether either will get off the ground at all, especially the Freda Mine, which lies along the Sepik River. The locals literally depend on the River for their sustenance (sago and fishing).

Some in PNG and overseas have applauded the current government’s effort to increase its stake in both the Pogera and Papua LNG. Apart from Ok Tedi, which is now owned by PNG government, Pogera Mine and Papua LNG represents the biggest share PNG has negotiated for and received in any commercial operation in the country.

Whether these turns in increased revenues remains to be seen. Opinions are divided on whether these two were good deals for PNG. Pogera comes into operation in 2022, whilst Papua LNG starts in 2027.

Part two of the blog will cover “security” and “governance” or corruption, and their impacts on PNG in 2022.

Thank you everyone for subscribing to Academia_Nomad, for reading articles published here, commenting, sharing etc. Thanks to PNG Attitude and Plessingsing for re-publishing articles from Academia_Nomad. It’s been a challenging year but we made it.

Wishing you all great health, happiness and prosperous 2022.

Take care.

A few years back, a high school teacher in one of Oro Province’s most rural high schools (Bareji High) was on pay, teaching. Later it was revealed that he didn’t have any qualifications to teach.

Just this year, a consultant was hired by the Oro Provincial Government. Because of the tireless efforts of Sunday Bulletin’s journalist Simon Eroro, it was revealed that the consultant didn’t possess any qualifications for the job he was doing.

In fact he was using the transcript of a female student from UPNG. Somehow he had his face on the transcript in place of her face, and had his name over her name. He was dumb to have the same student ID. Investigations showed that the ID belonged to a female student.

These two individuals made an attempt to provide some services, questionable though, because they didn’t possess the required qualifications. But there are people who get paid for not doing any work.

In 2018, the then Public Service Minister Minister Kapavore told NBC News that PNG had 4000 “ghost names” on payroll. People who don’t work but get paid. We don’t know if these people were removed. The public service salary consumes the highest budget in PNG: not law and order, not education etc.

Let’s go back to Oro Province’s case and see what the Provincial Government should have done differently to avoid being fooled by fraudsters.

First, how was the consultant hired? Did the employers ask for a reference? What does his CV say? Did they call his past employer? Consultancy is premised on exceptional knowledge, which means there has to be years of accumulation skills. These are so basic so I understand if you take this as an insult to your intelligence. But it’s just how low the bar is for public service employers.

Second, the Oro Provincial Government have even done better had they called the University of Papua New Guinea, and asked the particular school he claimed to have graduated from to forward his transcript instead of relying on the copy he attached on his application.

In fact, this year (2020), the Morobe Provincial Government called PNG universities and cross-checked the qualifications of their employees to make sure they had the same GPA as those which appears on their transcripts, and that they are graduates of these universities. The PNG public service has to conduct nationwide background checks of their employees.

If you do a simple math on how much we’ve spent on the 4000 ghosts over the years it’s mind boggling.

Let’s make a conservative estimate. If the ghosts get paid K1000 every fortnight, that’s K4, 000, 000 (K4 million).

K4 million x 26 fortnight in a year is K104 million. Over 5 years, PNG paid K520 million to ghosts.

Half a billion kina paid to ghosts. Gosh we love ghosts. PNG is the most spiritual country even ghosts get paid! That’s not counting entitlements, gratuities, and other allowances.

There are things that don’t need a loan to solve it. Doesn’t need aid to solve it. Doesn’t need China or Australia to solve it. It needs common sense.

How many of you think that it would be unnecessary to ask for a loan, if we saved half a billion over the last 5 years?

We don’t need rock star politicians with large social media followers, or convenient, scripture-quoting prime ministers. We just need practical leaders who do the simple things right.