USAID: Toktok lo skel blo toktok.

Whilst there’s so much talk about USAID being cut and its potential impact in the Pacific, at least for PNG, I cannot point to a specific USAID project and say with confidence that it has transformed lives.

This is not a criticism of USAID. Quality of live in PNG is not the responsibility of foreign countries and donors. We get that.

But don’t use the Pacific as a justification for existence of USAID, or any donor aid. I just sat through the PNG Government-Business Breakfast 2025 in Port Moresby this week, and the seminar presentations that followed. None of the PNG speakers ever mentioned USAID.

When they discussed the many issues affecting PNG, they rightfully pointed to the government’s failure.

So when you discuss the loss from USAID, which should be discussed on whatever merit it has, don’t overstate its importance in the Pacific and/or PNG.

If PNG had substantial exports to the US, and if there’s was a 25% tariff imposed on its exports, only then would we come close to discussing the impact of Trump on PNG. At the moment, it’s as though there was no USAID in PNG. Yes there may be some that have lost their jobs that are funded through an USAID project somewhere unknown. But no one in PNG is discussing USAID in any substantial manner.

For Papua New Guineans, as the former president of Kenya said, we don’t pay taxes to the US. They can do whatever they want with their money. Just focus on holding your government accountable and demanding better.

Now you what about China: will it move in and fill the assumed void?

As Brian Kramer used to say: The short answer is NO!

If you want to talk about loans, China matters in the Pacific. Not AID. The Lowy Institute Aid Map clearly shows that Chinese aid is not match to Australian aid in the Pacific and PNG. Sometimes huge discrepancies exist between money promised and money given.

The Chinese are not big on climate change. And they don’t pretend to be. The avatar for such concerns is the West. But again, you cannot point to a climate initiative that has transformed anything.

So toktok lo skel blo toktok.

RIP Tess

Tess Gizoria

Tess Gizoria passed away recently after a long fight with cancer. This post on 4 December 2024 when she was undergoing chemotherapy says a lot about PNG’s priorities:

“I know my portion is life and life in abundance. But even in saying that, I’m grateful for 34 days in hospital. 34 days where it was touch and go for more than half that time.

34 days where I flatlined once. 34 days where I saw the Hand of God every single one of those days.

But I’m not here to talk about my spiritual journey. That is a private matter I’m not ready to share at this time.

What I did want to say is sometimes God allows us to go through things so those of us who can speak up should speak up.

It all started in February 2023 when I met those 14 women battling breast cancer and undergoing chemo at POM Gen. I also met those nurses and the conditions under which they mix the highly toxic chemo drugs.

I met the 18 year old who had to fly with his parents from Kundiawa to POM everytime for chemo. I met the the lady with 3 kids who was a peanut farmer on the hills behind NBC 5mile who only had the K460 she needed for her first round of chemo that year and ended up never returning.

I met my Sepik sisters who would fly in every month for chemo and fly back home because they either had no where to stay here in POM or no money for upkeep while here. We lost Melody that April. I still remember her face. I remember her youngest/teenage daughter’s face who accompanied her mama every time.

I’ll never forget that April 2023. It was my son’s birthday when Melody and I went in for our chemo session along with the 4 others. I’ll never forget Melody. I’ll never forget all I owe my people of Sepik for the fact that God has given me a second chance at life.

Some of us may never be able to do a whole lot for PNG. But Sepik blo mi yah, ol mama, pikinini na lain blo yumi ba nonap raun painim halivim or dai osem. This will not continue. Our leadership is doing wonders and more such leaders will rise up.

That is my hope and strong belief!

Pic: The PET scan at the Royal North Shore Hospital in Sydney, Australia. This will be our Boram and our Raihu Hospitals. Soon and very soon!

mamagraun”

END

RIP Tess

Government of the Non-Taxpaying Papua New Guineans!

An Heli Solutions Helicopter

After 20 years of operation, Heli Solutions has shut down. The local company couldn’t survive fuel shortages and a lack of foreign currency.

But the deeper problem? Poor decisions by politicians—especially the prime minister.

When gold prices were at their peak, James Marape shut down Pogera, one of the region’s biggest mines and a major source of foreign currency for PNG in 2019. It reopened four years later, but without fixing the underlying issues. Since then, it’s had repeated shutdowns and has racked up more costs trying to stay afloat.

The fuel shortage traces back to how the government handled the Puma Energy case. Puma is the only company in PNG with the facilities to import, store, and distribute fuel. But when Puma asked for more foreign currency to buy fuel, the Central Bank refused. Without foreign currency, Puma couldn’t import fuel. This led to a standoff that continues today. Authorities accused Puma of money laundering, but they’ve never shown evidence to prove it.

Why did the Central Bank deny more foreign currency? They said PNG’s reserves are too low.

And why does PNG need higher reserves? To pay off debt. Debts are paid in foreign currency, and even if PNG has plenty of Kina, it doesn’t matter if it lacks dollars. Right now, PNG has neither enough Kina nor enough dollars.

So, who’s borrowing all this money? The government of Papua New Guinea.

And who elects this government? The people. During elections, most Papua New Guineans prioritize free handouts—like lamb flaps, SP beer, and church donations—over national issues.

Only 15-20% of Papua New Guineans pay taxes. The rest—about 80-85%—are unemployed and don’t pay taxes. But every voter has one vote, and the majority of voters are non-taxpayers. That’s why PNG ends up with governments that represent the unemployed and non-taxpaying majority.

Meanwhile, the taxpaying minority—those 15-20% who work and pay taxes—shoulders the burden. Apart from resource revenues, this small majority fund free education, DSIP, PSIP, and even MPs’ haus krai contributions. And now, with Heli Solutions shutting down, 65 more taxpaying workers have lost their jobs.

The same thing happened when riots burned Port Moresby in January 2024. The mostly non-taxpaying crowd caused destruction, leaving taxpaying workers without jobs. These are the same people funding the free education for the rioters’ children.

PNG has two massive problems:

  1. Non-taxpaying citizens deciding who leads the country.
  2. Leaders they elect being corrupt and irresponsible.

And who pays the price? The shrinking minority of hardworking, taxpaying Papua New Guineans.

Papua New Guinean PhD student wins Australasian Aid Conference 3 Minutes Competition

PhD student Natasha Turia – Winner of the 2024
Australasia Aid Conference 3 Minutes Aid Pitch

Papua New Guinean PhD student wins Australasian Aid Conference 3 Minutes Competition

In the recent Australasian Aid Conference in Canberra, Natasha S Turia won the 3 Minutes Aid Pitch. 3 Minutes Aid Pitch is a competition where you present your brilliant idea under 3 minutes, and the conference attendees decide the winner in an online poll.

The Australasian Aid Conference attracts huge number of participants ranging from researchers to practitioners across the Pacific, Asia and beyond. This year more than 500 participated.

Natasha argued that the success of aid is when the receipent country doesn’t need aid anymore. That should be the goal of Australia’s aid to PNG. One way to do that is to give PNG its own resident visa.

The current Pacific Engagement Visa allocates 1000+ out of the 3000 for Papua New Guineans, despite PNG being the only country having more than a million people (11 million+, whilst no Pacific island country has more than a million), and being the only country Australia had as a colony, and receives the highest amount of Australian aid money annually in the world.

Natash is from PNG, currently a PhD student researching labour mobility at the Australian National University’s Department of Pacific Affairs.

We (PhD students at the Department of Pacific Affairs) call Natasha “Pawa Meri”. She juggles 3 of her 4 children, PhD, and wins competition.

To see Natasha’s pitch, see 21:21, on the YouTube link below. You will also see the other competitors. The calibre of people who spoke are amazing. Just tells you how great Natasha’s presentation was to win the competition.

Congratulations Pawa Meri!

A transcript of Governor Allan Bird’s response to PNG’s 2025 Budget during the Budget debate.

Governor Allan Bird

“Thank you Mr Speaker,

The Opposition represents the views of those people who disagree with the way our country is being managed. That is our job. You might not like us but without us, the people would have no voice in this House.

With that, let me commend the Treasurer for another record-breaking budget of K28.357 billion. 6 record Budgets in a row. That must be a record too.

Let me also acknowledge that he has the hardest job in PNG given that daily payment requests from Government MPs can’t be easy to deal with. This is also the first time; the Treasurer has NOT brought a Supplementary Budget to Parliament.

Let me commend the Treasurer and his team for raising more money than any other government in our history through taxes, loans and quantitative easing. It’s an achievement that is going to be difficult to match in future. K145 billion from 2020 to 2025. That’s more money than the last two Governments combined. This Government will spend more money in 6 years than the last 17 years combined.

Knowing what goes on in Government circles, I commend you Treasurer for being an excellent kuskus in a very difficult environment and keeping the budget from running over. I am sure it’s really frustrating for you to raise the money while other Ministers get to spend the money.

Thank you, Treasurer, for the reduction in GST on everyday basic items for our people. I am so pleased that the little bag of goodies I gave you at the beginning of the year gave you a little motivation.

For raising revenue and balancing the Budget every year, I give the Treasurer an A+. If we were still in school, you would be valedictorian!

However, a Budget is not just about raising revenue, it should be about its impact on the lives of our people and about how it impacts the health of our economy.

While the hard-working Treasurer has been repairing the Budget these past 5 years going on 6, whose job was it to repair the Economy?

Mr Speaker,

Transparency on Actual Cash transfers

Around K1 billion was illegally transferred to certain provinces as indicated in the 2023 FBO, we have still not been told which provinces were given special treatment and granted this billion-kina windfall. One province received a K280m warrant which was not budgeted for. Is this part of the K1 billion transferred secretly to certain provinces? Which other provinces benefited? Do the people of Sepik deserve to know? Or the people of Chimbu? Central or New Ireland?

On very large capital Expenditures which I asked the Minister for Finance last week on the K1.15 billion in his department which he denied. I see that another K1.15 billion has been budgeted under Department of Finance on page 230-235 Volume 2, Part A. The people of PNG need transparency on where these funds are going.

Serious Issues with Cash Transfers to Agencies

According to the 2024 MYEFO which was released two weeks ago, all provinces have received around 30% of their Grants (including ESP with around K50m in grants outstanding) Our PHA has K16.7m still unpaid. We have not been given K10m in Provincial Infrastructure Funds.

All PHAs have received around 40% of their grant funding for this year.

UPNG, Unitech, UNRE and University of Goroka have only received 20% of Funds this year.

The Treasurer says the Police will get more than K700m next year. He said last year that they would receive K629m. We all got excited expecting some real improvement in Law-and-Order outcomes.

Checking the MYEFO, only K10m of the K200m PIP Budget for Police has been released so far and they have received only 30% of their operational funds. Just like all the provinces.

So, this new K697m Budget for Police, how much of it will actually get warranted to the Police on time? You heard right, it’s actually K700m unless some funds have been hidden somewhere else in the budget for them. No wonder we are all waiting for solutions, the Police never received the funds they were promised for this year!

The size of the budget is irrelevant if the funds do not get to the priority areas on time to have an impact.

M&E for Impact and Outcomes

In this Budget we have K7 billion in PIP. Last budget we had K10 billion in PIP. So over 6 budgets around K50 billion have been spent on Public Investment Programs. No other government has spent this kind of money in PIP Expenditure.

Can the responsible Department report to the House what was achieved with this record PIP spending? Where are the M&E Reports? Surely PNG deserves to know the outcomes and impact of this record funding?

This government needs 13 years to Repair the Budget. Do they also need 13 years to repair the Economy? We know repairing the Budget requires a lot of borrowing and printing of money. What do we need to repair the economy? Can they tell us that as well?

While the Government keeps itself busy repairing the budget, who is repairing the massive damage to the economy brought on by the shutdown of Porgera and the renegotiation of Papua LNG.

Total Budgets from 2020-2025 now stands at K145 billion.

There is an alarming and growing trend from the PM and from Ministers to say, we are giving MPs PSIP and DSIP and what are you all doing with it? SIP only constitutes around K1.2 billion which is 4% of the Budget. How come no one talks about what happens to the remaining 96% of the Budget? Why are we diverting the attention of the public to 4% of the Budget?

Three years ago, as Chairman of Plans and Estimates, I warned the Government about borrowing too much on the concern that it would drive inflation at a time when the overall productivity of our economy was poor.

By next year this government will spend K145 billion over 6 Budgets. In that time, it has borrowed K37b, and it says it has almost doubled Nominal GDP to K137 billion from K79 billion (as the PM says). K58 billion Nominal Budget Growth.

In the same period Real GDP will grow to K76 from K66 billion. Very sneaky, Very Cunning.

Some more Deep Budget Holes

In Volume 3A Page 554/555 we see the Budget for Connect PNG is up to K1.6 billion from K600m this year. Already, there is K300m allocated for Arrears some in Treasury and Works. Thank you for paying attention to my concerns on Connect PNG.

Connect PNG Contracts K10 billion?? Finance and Works Minister

Claims against the State K10 billion?? Attorney General

Arrears sitting in Treasury K7 billion?? Treasurer

GST Credits owing to businesses held by IRC K3/4 billion?? When will Government budget to repay money owed to our businesses?

The Government is deliberately killing 30,000 genuine businesses who have applied for rebates and are still waiting for 3 years now by withholding what is owed.

Contingent Liabilities K8.7 billion (Thank Treasurer for including all the details in MYEFO)

I note that the Additional Equity for PNG LNG K2.8 billion ($692m) and the Loan for PX of K3.4 billion ($850m) for new aircraft are not included in Contingent Liabilities. So, the government needs to be transparent about where these debts of K6.2 billion will be held.

Total debts off the books is K45 billion Add that to total debts on the books of K64 billion and our potential debts are around K109 billion

He said he was taking back PNG and therefore Porgera had to be shut down. Papua LNG has now moved its development timetable to the next decade.

On the K200 billion Economy

This government has continued to table record budget after record budget, unfortunately none of those budgets have translated into any significant economic benefit for our people.

Our good Melanesian PM tells us that the economy is growing so rapidly compared to previous governments. Unfortunately, the opposite is true outside of this Parliament. Only government expenditure is growing, real economic growth is not growing at the same rate.

The fastest way to get to a K200 billion Economy is to devalue the Kina. Let me say the government is on the right track with that goal.

Apart from a total spend of K145 billion the people of PNG have not been given any updates on our road to the PMs vision except that a K200 billion economy is the target. The fastest way to reach a K200 billion economy is to devalue the Kina. A Weak Kina gets us there.

On the Debt to GDP Ratio

Since Debt is measured against Nominal GDP, the government has cunningly borrowed and printed money and rained that into our economy. This has had two main effects, firstly, it has grown Nom GDP sky high. This high number then results in a lower Debt to GDP Ratio. That’s an absolutely brilliant trick. I thank the Hon Masere and NSO for releasing the real numbers.

This extra cash is also fueling Inflation which our people are feeling right now. The truth of the matter is that in the same period where nominal GDP is going like a rocket at K137 billion, Real GDP has only grown by around K10b in the same period to K79 billion. A Gap of K58 billion or 42%. This correlates precisely with the cost-of-living crisis our people are feeling.

Sneaky, Very Cunning magic tricks at work.

An Alarming Development

This year interest payments are K3.05 billion or 11% of the total Budget

Next year interest payments will be K3.522 billion or 12% of the total Budget

Interest payments in future years will keep going up.

How comes the Government is so quiet on these things? Very sneaky Ninja tactics.

Solution to our Cost-of-Living Crisis

The missing medicine for our economic sickness is the Real Private Sector.

Not the Connect PNG contractors or the suppliers of medicine or the landlords renting/selling offices to government.

Where are the 1 million jobs promised for our people? I see in the Treasurers report that the goal is to create 10,000 jobs a year. What’s going on?

You want a million jobs, create the right environment and private sector will do it for you.

In a 2023 Business Survey of 100 Business CEOs in PNG by the International Trade Administration they listed the following as the biggest impediment to doing business:

Lack of access to Foreign Exchange
Serious Law and Order issues
Skills shortages
Unreliable telecommunications and Utilities (power)
Lack of Government Capacity
Corruption
Regulatory uncertainty
Funnily enough, Political Stability isn’t high on this list.

The country urgently needs an injection of Foreign Capital to stabilize the freefall of the Kina and to soak up the printed money from the Quantitative Easing of the Government over the past 5 years.

Wafi Golpu is the only major project in the pipeline. Our strong recommendation: get it off the ground urgently. Stop wasting time.

Is the government aware that under our current laws, PNG is entitled to 30% equity in Wafi Golpu? Are our ministers also aware that under our current tax laws we are entitled to 30% profits tax on all businesses? Are our ministers also aware that our landowners and provincial government are entitled to a 2% gross royalty under law? We are also entitled to PIT.

PNG is already entitled under laws written 30 years ago to at least 65% of the free cash flow from any mine, Wafi Golpu notwithstanding. What are we trying to negotiate?

K200m has been paid to the Morobe Provincial Government consistent with the Governments K700m plus intention for the Porgera landowners, can the government give the Wafi Golpu landowners K100m to sort themselves out so we can get that mine going?

Wafi Golpu will bring in enough dollars to soak up at least K12 billion in printed money. Granted it won’t solve all our economic problems but it will give the country breathing space, stop the Kina freefall and give our hard-working tax payers some real relief.

Increase the Tax Threshold to K25,000 or reduce tax rates for our middle to low-income earners

This will provide more income to our most affected people, and it will also increase consumer spending which will lead to Real GDP Growth.

This will no doubt affect government revenue in the short term but increased consumer spending from more money in workers hands will improve their lives and lead to increased collections of GST. It is a good policy option for government.

Cut back Government spending, live within our means

Start investing in the productive capacity of the country. Stop wasteful spending.

The PM tells MPs, “I give you PSIP and I give you DSIP go and focus on service delivery in your district, in your province. Stop playing politics.” Yes, stop MPs from questioning your lack of performance. Keep them busy elsewhere, passim eye blong ol:

Law and Order
Continuous black outs
Endless Foreign Currency shortages,
National Highways
Fuel shortages & Flight cancelations.
These are National Government responsibilities! When will they be fixed?

Finally, to our people, most of our basic goods had taxes removed previously. With the devaluation in the Kina, please do not expect a huge difference in the prices at the shop.

Also, the K20,000 Tax Free Threshold is still remains unchanged. So please do not expect any changes to your taxes next year. You should be used to Government promises by now.

I want to close by saying this to the Government and I quote “Inflation is always a monetary issue and it is created by Government printing too much money” Prof Milton Freidman. So, whether its Keynes, Marx or Warren Buffet, they all say the same thing.

PNG doesn’t have a money problem. It has too much money being spent in the wrong places. Or spent in places that have a zero impact on our Real GDP.

Our K100 is buying around K58 worth of food right now. Someone needs to fix that.

After 5 years of listening to record Budgets have a negative impact on the lives of our people, I am glad to be on the record, telling the story the way it should be told. Our people deserve an honest answer, not just about how great the government is doing. Our people need to feel the benefit of a booming economy, not just smell the sweet sounds of the pigs being butchered and then, struggling to feed their children.

Treasurer says that in 13 Years Time, they will fix the Budget. PM is amending the Constitution so he can have 13 Years to fix the Economy. They need 13 record budgets and how many more deep debt holes to fix the Budget and the Economy?

Mr Speaker, can PNG afford to wait 13 years while they figure out how to manage our economy and our country?”

ENDS

Allan Bird
Parliamentary Representative for East Sepik Province”

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