Vote of No Confidence in PNG

Kerenga Kua has just announced his resignation as Minister for Energy from the Marape Coalition. Many have asked me if there will be a vote of no confidence.

This is my prediction: the prime minister who is elected following the 2027 national elections will face a vote of no confidence 18 months after his election. Why am I so confident that would be the case?

Because VONC is a permanent feature of Papua New Guinea (PNG) politics. Only 2 prime ministers have ever completed their terms in parliament.

It doesn’t matter whether you are the founding father or have delivered high economic growth. PNG politicians love VONC.

Michael Somare was removed in a VONC. Sir Julius Chan was removed. Pias Wingti was removed. Rabbie Namilu failed to return as PM. Mekere Mourata failed to return as PM. Skate was replaced. Peter O’Neill was replaced.

It doesn’t take a political scientist to make correct predictions. Anyone can say “there’ll be a vote of no confidence after 18 months” and be right 95% of the time.

This time it’s no different. Even if Marape delivered everything we want, the politicians would have removed him.

What is the real cause of the vote of no confidence then?

Some are genuinely concerned about the affairs of the country. This is usually the few minority. The majority just want access to state resources. The vote of no confidence is used as a vehicle by those who have no access to state resources to replace those who have access to state resources.

What about 10 January 2024 riots and looting?

For a vote of no confidence you need an issue, to use as grounds for moving a vote of no confidence. The riots is an easy pick. But if it was not the riots, opposition would have picked one of many issues in PNG. Issues are used almost as an excuse, whilst the real reason is to have access to state resources.

PC: Kerenga Kua announcing his resignation from the Marape coalition as a Minister for Energy.

PNG OC seeks clarification on the creation of new ministry

PNG’s Ombudsman Commission (OC), the anti-corruption watchdog, has written to the Prime Minister James Marape seeking clarification on how the new ministry – Ministry for Constitutional Offices will affect the independence of the constitutional offices such as the OC.

In a recent cabinet reshuffle, Marape appointed a new Minister for Constitutional Offices.

The point OC raises is valid: constitutional offices are independent and not politically answerable to the government. And in a highly politicised bureaucratic environment, bringing an independent agency such as the OC under a minister will compromise the work of constitutional office holders.

Below is an extract of the letter, and it’s implications:

Ombudsman Commission’s Letter to James Highlights the following:

  1. The head of the executive government, the prime minister has the right to appoint ministers and create ministries
  2. Departments are politically answerable to the ministers
  3. Constitutional offices are an exception: they are independent and not answerable to a minister
  4. James Marape recently created a minister to for constitutional office
  5. Ombudsman Commission seeks clarification on what this minister’s role is, whether OC will come unde the powers of the minister, and how this reconciles with the fact that constitutional offices are independent

Implications

  1. If Marape undos the ministry of constitutional office he will lose face
  2. If he maintains it, it will potentially be unconstitutional
  3. If a dispute arises the matter will go before the Supreme Court
  4. A Supreme Court ruling will prove to be very important:
  • if ruled in favour of Marape, the constitutional offices will be compromised as all other PNG government departments are
  • if ruled in favour of OC, again, Marape will lose face, but an important precedent will be set not to interfere with constitutional offices

Way forward:

Marape must undo the ministry for constitutional offices.

Where are the parents, siblings, pastors, and the communities?

The only shop in Gerehu to have survived the 10th of February 2024 looting and burning was burnt down yesterday (Sunday), a week after the 10th of January.

The suspects were apprehended: four kids and one adult!

If you’ve been concerned about unemployment and its impact on PNG, or the rise in criminal activities, lawlessness, inflation, or tax cuts, you have something more serious to worry about.

That the kids, at a very young age, are the primary suspects for a million Kina loss to a business.

How did a country that professes to be 97% Christian burn and loot, and have its children not only follow but, in this case, become the primary actors in the crime of arson?

Where are the kids’ parents? Where are their older siblings? Where are the communities they belong to? Who are their wantoks?

The answer is simple:

The Christians they are supposed to look up to, the parents who are supposed to raise them right, the siblings who were supposed to be role models, the community which was supposed to set rules of the game… were involved in the 10th of January 2024 looting.

As much as we’d like to blame the government, PNG society is essentially decaying. A downward spiral that threatens to destroy the last of the values we hold.

This 10,000 years of civilization is headed for a very dark future if nothing is done.

10 Key Points In PNG’s Political Timeline: February 2024 and Beyond

  1. The 18 months grace period will END on 9 February 2024
  2. First Parliament Sitting of 2024 on 13 February
  3. Vote of No Confidence (VONC) against James Marape is possible between February 2024 and June 2026
  4. Because a successful VONC within the last 12 months can trigger a fresh election, MPs never push for a VONC 12 months before election. Therefore VONC is not likely after July 2026, which is 12 months before 2027 elections
  5. If there is a successful VONC anytime after 13 February 2024, a fresh 18 months grace period will kick in.
  6. This will mean another 18 months of political stability. After which a VONC can be moved
  7. In close to 50 years, only two PNG prime ministers have ever completed their 5 year term as prime ministers (Somare 2002 – 2007; O’Neill 2012 – 2017). The odds are therefore against James Marape. Will he be the third PM to complete his term?
  8. Yesterday’s cabinet shuffle is NOT the last one. We will see many more shuffle as PM attempts to buy loyalty.
  9. DSIPs/PSIPs have been a key political tool used for buying political support and loyalty apart from ministerial portfolios and directing donor funding to projects in friendly MPs electorate. Marape has already hinted doubling the DSIP in 2023, but this will depend on 2024 revenues.
  10. Brace for political instability after 9 February 2024!

Stuck Ones: Ministers Assisting the Prime Minister

In James Marape’s Pangu-led government, there’s a clear pattern: Ministers who say controversial things are replaced by the Prime Minister.

The removed Minister then becomes the Minister Assisting the Prime Minister, helping behind the scenes.

This happened with Justin Tketchenko and Ian Ling-Stucky, where Marape took over their ministries but kept them as assistants. The former called critics “primitive animals” whilst the latter said no Papua New Guineans are actually suffering.

It seems Marape does this to handle controversies, making him the public face while the real power stays with these controversial MPs assisting him. In essence, Marape is the face, but Ministers assisting him hold the real power.

Another coincidence is that both Justin Tkancheko and Ian Ling-Stucky have been nicknamed “Stuck One” in PNG.

No wonder these guys are sticky and cannot be easily removed.

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