Pangu Pati Splits: what happens now?

Pangu Pati MPs travelling to the opposition camp

Pangu Pati, the leading coalition partner in the current PNG government has split. My test for a successful government change in PNG is when there is a significant split with the ruling coalition party. This is because the ruling coalition party is usually the biggest party. Currently Pangu has 59 MPs, about half of PNG’s seats in parliament.

Now that Pangu has spilt, what happens next?

Pangu Split: What Happens Now?

1. The Deputy Speaker has instructed the opposition to submit a new notice for a vote of no confidence. The first step for the opposition is to decide on a candidate for Prime Minister between tonight and Tuesday.
2. On Tuesday, when Parliament meets, the opposition will submit a new notice for a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister James Marape.
3. The notice must include the name of the alternate Prime Minister, a reason of national interest for the vote, and must be signed by 10% of the MPs in the PNG Parliament (10% of 118 MPs).
4. The Parliament Business Committee will meet at lunchtime on Wednesday to review the notice. Their sole responsibility is to ensure the notice meets the technical requirements outlined in point 3.
5. On Thursday, Parliament will be informed of the notice as the first order of business and then adjourn for a week. By the following Thursday, June 4, a new Prime Minister could be in place if the opposition is successful.
6. The process may not be straightforward. The government-dominated Parliament Business Committee might delay the meeting on Wednesday. Additionally, the government could persuade an MP who signed the motion to switch sides, invalidating the motion, as seen with Gordon Wesley.
7. If the government changes, the new Prime Minister will have an 18-month grace period starting June 4, 2024.
8. If James Marape retains his seat, he will not be protected by a grace period, allowing the opposition to mount repeated votes of no confidence.
9. The period between now and June 4 is long, and in PNG politics, many unforeseen events can occur. Thus, predicting an outcome is highly uncertain.

A change in the prime minister’s position is needed given the chaotic rule of James Marape. But will the next prime minister be any better? That answer lies in who the next prime minister will be. The prime minister’s seat has to go to Allan Bird for there to be any hope of change.