Academia Nomad

Many young people are contesting the PNG 2022 national election. Some have graduated a few months ago with their university degrees, whilst others have been working for just a few years.

Young people in PNG have been politically active since independence. The likes of former Prime Minister Pias Wingti left his studies at the University of Papua New Guinea mid-way and contested elections and won. Julias Chan was only 28 when he became the first finance minister of PNG. Michael Somare was barely past his 30s when he led PNG to independence.

Some of the current politicians like Gary Juffa, Alan Bird, and Powes Parkop were at the forefront of student-led protests during their days at University of Papua New Guinea (UPNG).

This trend continues – where students develop ambitions during the many protests against the government during university studies, and then go for elections. It is not uncommon for former university students to tell the populace during elections that “I fought for your rights” and got shot at by the police. Several UPNG students have even contested the Port Moresby Northwest seat during the semester break (elections fall during semester break in PNG), failed to get elected, returned and completed their studies!

There is a distinction to be made between what we are seeing now, and the past generations.

Julias Chan and Michael Somare era was different because in their generation, they were about the only educated Papua New Guineans we had.

Gary Juffa, Alan Bird and Powes Parkop went into private and public sector, proved their worth, gained the necessary experience, and entered politics.

Unlike the 1970s and 80s, we already have an educated population and are in no desperate need for young graduates entering politics. And if you wonder why Gary Juffa is an effective orator or why Bird is so in delivering services, it has to do with experience.

There is a concern.

Many of the young people who contest the election see politics as the only way they can make a difference in their communities. In fact they see politics as the answer to all the questions. Phrases like “everything rises and falls on leaderships” is so manipulated and grossly abused in PNG.

This misconception partly has to do with what PNG politics has evolved into: that politics is about money. If you have money, you can solve about any problem in your community.

PNG Open MPs get K10 million in DSIP funds annually which they spend largely at their discretion. The Governors get K5 million multiplied by the number of districts in their province – annually.

Most PNG politicians don’t see themselves as law makers. The people don’t see them as lawmakers either. The MPs are seen as walking ATMs. Everything from haus krai contribution to health centres is the role of the MP.

You hardly hear candidates campaigning about the 370 colonial laws that are still applicable in PNG (according to Constitutional Law Reform Commission) and how to reform it.

Young people have a right to contest elections. But the twisted view that politics is the answer to everything is troubling. That leadership means occupying a political office is twisted. That you can only make a difference if you’re MP is a delusional.

In one of my Facebook posts, I posted this:

“… The day our musicians become international stars, our sports athletes win Olympic medals, our rugby, soccer, cricket teams start winning international trophies, our entrepreneurs and products become international brands, our literatures are made into movies, and our novels make the New York Times best sellers… is the day the number of PNG candidates who contest the elections will drop. At the moment, politics is the proven way one becomes rich and popular. Kids from a young age are introduced to three months of non-stop election frenzy. When they grow they want to be politicians. And the circle goes on. 2000+ candidates. Over a billion spent nationwide. All for what?…”

Politics is seen as how rockstars are made (Juffa, Bird, Kramer). Politics is seen as where all the answers lie. Politics is associated with leadership in the exclusion of other arenas. It’s a twisted view, and it needs to change.

It’s unfair not to say that some young people do understand elections as a process of getting elected to make laws. The main role of politicians. And they see a genuine need for political representation for their communities. The rant above doesn’t apply to you. In PNG, politics turns good men into evil men. Keep your hearts pure.

By Alan Bird

How to become PM in PNG

I see the strong comments from young Sepiks and other coastal citizens for a coastal PM. So let me share my observations on whether this outcome is indeed possible and what it would take to achieve it.

There are three ways someone can become PM:

1. the first is obviously a party leader of the party that gets the highest number after the elections getting the invitation from the GG after the 2022 elections.

GC Somare had this opportunity in 2002 and 2007. Peter O’Neil had that opportunity in 2012 and 2017.

It’s also possible for like minded parties to form a block and vote against the ruling party in August and nominate their own PM. But this has never occurred previously and the chances are slim.

2. Through a vote of No Confidence as we saw against PNC in this term of Parliament where Marape was elevated. This is much more difficult because it takes a very special leader who is well liked or regarded as less destructive than the incumbent.

Marape became PM because most MPs and the country was fed up with PNC and he was the most likeable choice among the contenders.

The choice of Marape was also driven by the fear of not letting PNC or O’Neil back in. I believe most PNGans are afraid of letting PNC back into government. Certainly after the burning of the PANGU flag in Southern Highlands last week, I see many coastal communities fearful of what that means for the country. In Sepik the last few days, I have seen rising fears of the dangers of a PNC led government.

3. The third way of becoming PM is to steal it by breaking the Constitution like many leaders did in 2011. Again, the chances of this are slim.

So which coastal party leaders have the charisma and the attraction to become PM in 2022 and what are their chances?

Patrick Prauitch & National Alliance

National Alliance Party of which he is leader won 15 seats in 2017. NA is likely to win between 15 and 20 seats this time around.

To get the invitation from the GG, history tells us the magic number is 27. If NA does not get 27, we will need a coalition and that coalition will depend on Hon PPs ability to negotiate with other party leaders. Notably PANGU which NA has an agreement with. The other like-minded partners are URP, People’s Party and National Party and other smaller coalition partners of the current government.

Lekwa Gure & United Labour Party

ULP has an opportunity with their 4 MPs and with the tragic and unfortunate loss of their charismatic party leader, Hon Basil. But they will also need to win 27 seats or a significant number to have a chance.

Charles Abel & Our Development Party

ODP has two MPs and is likely to form an alliance with PNC if they get the numbers. Again, they face similar challenges to NA.

Other Costal Parties

All other coastal one man party leaders like Maru, Kramer, Namah, Juffa and others will need to win greater than 15 seats to have an opportunity.

The only party to do that from nowhere was PANGU in 2017 under the late Hon Basil. Such a feat is unlikely to be repeated but stranger things have happened.

From the above and given our history, it’s likely and obvious that the two main players will still be PANGU and PNC. So all candidates who win seats in 2022 will need to pick between the above parties.

To our young upcoming leaders, the key to getting a PM from another region lies in supporting candidates who are well liked nationally and who can form alliances with others. Building parties takes time. Building alliances takes time. Gaining national popularity takes time. These things will not occur in one term.

My suggestion is that you stick to the party or leader you like best and help build them up and wait for the opportunity. While miracles do happen, let’s not count on it. In the meantime, don’t make derogatory statements about the leaders and behaviors of leaders from the Highlands. They have their own ways of behaving and we have ours.

While we value humility and respect for one another and we behave accordingly, let’s not go the way of our Highlands friends and start doing things with violence or burning flags or using guns to win elections.

I encourage young coastal leaders to continue to behave in ways that best represents our values. Good behavior is not a sign of weakness, it is a sign of great strength. Let the ballot box speak.

A coastal PM will come when we have a leader who can pull support from all corners of the country and when the nation is ready for it. Making negative and inflammatory statements will not help to make that happen.

END!

I once listened to a talk about challenges women face in elections. The case study was on the Oro Provincial Seat of 2017. I am from Oro so I listened with interest. I was disappointed at the end because the findings were not a good reflection of Oro politics.

The study suggested that the female candidate, Jean Parkop, Powes Parkop’s wife who came second lost because she was a woman.

This couldn’t be far from the truth.

Jean Parkop lost because she contested a seat whose incumbent MP was Gary Juffa. The Gary Juffa of 2012 – 2017 was so popular that it was impossible for any candidate to win against him. Jean Parkop did not lose because she was woman. She lost because she was up against the most popular PNG politican. Juffa was so popular he could have won the National Capital District seat if wanted to contest it.

How popular was Gary Juffa in Oro Province?

This story will put things into context. The day after nominations open in Oro Province, my cousin drove into town. He saw the posters of Oro Candidates up on public walls and shops in town, but Gary Juffa’s poster was not among them.

Curious he asked by-standers why Gary Juffa’s poster was no where to be seen. One of by standers who resides in town said:

“As soon as Juffa’s posters went up, youths, kids, parents, street guys, mothers, fathers, ripped them and took them home. They want to put it on their houses, shops, trucks.”

Everyone wanted a bit of Gary Juffa. People who never met Juffa personally, but wanted to associate themselves with Juffa.

One of the things you must do if you have ambitions to contest seats in PNG is to be realistic about your chances of winning, but also the chances that the incumbent will lose. If the incumbent is too popular, you probably shouldn’t contest the same seat.

You cannot win a seat held but Alan Bird, Tom Lino, Justin Thackenko, Peter O’Neill, James Marape, Richard Maru and perhaps John Rosso in 2023.

Yes some of these leaders are corrupt and should be replaced. Unfortunately majority of the voters in their electorates have a different criteria on who they think is deserving of their votes. And these voters views matter. They get to decide who becomes the MP.

Follow politics through out the five years. Do your homework. Do your ground work. But also be realistic about your chances of winning. This goes for both male and female candidates, but more so for the female candidates. Because when the election is over, we will be arguing about why women didn’t win the election – not the other way around.

Avoid unwindable seats.

The PNG incumbent politicians are seeking re-election. Generally there are two narratives in their campaigns.

The first group tell their voters why they didn’t deliver services (for non-PNG readers, PNG politicians are enabled by law to provide services apart from their law making duties).

This first group blames O’Neill or Marape, depending on whether they were in the opposition with O’Neill or in the government with Marape, for the failure to deliver services. O’Neill was the prime minister from August 2017 – May 2019, and was replaced by James Marape, who served from May 2019 to 2022. O’Neill moved to the opposition after he was replaced.

This first group blame just about everything except their own failures, mismanagement, misuse and corruption.

The second group pay their nomination fees, turn to their supporters, and tell them:

“If you liked the job I did, give me the mandate to serve you another term”.

The likes you find in this second group includes Alan Bird, Richard Maru, Rainbow Paita, Dr Tom Lino (and the late Sam Basil). No excuses. No blame game. Just records to prove or disprove their claims.

Below is the speech Alan Bird (of the second group) gave after his nomination. Alan Bird is the incumbent governor for East Sepik.

By Alan Bird:

“I nominated yesterday quietly in Wewak because I didn’t want our supporters clogging up the traffic like we did in 2017.

Today morning we launch our campaign in Maprik. Simply because there are only 24 candidates nominating for Maprik Open seat. Friday is also a quiet day in Maprik so we can clog up the streets.

We are planning for 40-50,000 supporters to come and support National Alliance and PANGU. This will be the largest gathering in Sepik history.

I wish all intending candidates the best and let’s support a free and fair election. Let’s do this without violence. I shook hands and wished several Regional Candidates good luck in the elections this afternoon.

It’s been a great honor representing and speaking on behalf of the Sepik people. I know I won’t please everyone. I have never required Police escorts to travel the highways.

When I stop and people greet me, I know that I am doing the right thing by ordinary Sepik folks. I thank you all for your support.

I have a simple message for our people: you can trust me to look after your future. Let me finish what I started in 2018.

I have not stolen any money and none of my family or relatives have received a single government contract since my election. I have also brought record amounts of money to our province.

The future of the Sepik people is safe in my hands. I have always made decisions in the interest of ordinary citizens.

My only interest is in moving the Sepik Region forward by supporting the hard working rural people so that every citizen has an equal opportunity. Sepik should be for all of us, not just the privileged few. This is how we can contribute to our country.

By making Sepik strong and self sufficient. That is our vision. We are strong people, we like to work for ourselves and this is what we have been trying to achieve.

I ask you all to trust me once more and let me finish what I started in 2018.

Transparency, honesty and public service to empower our people and local government. That’s what I stand for.

Yupla save pinis lo mi, yupla lukim mi pinis. Mi fight hard lo yupla pipol blo Sepik na Papua New Guinea wantaim. Givim mi spear wanpla more taim na larim mi pinisim wok mi startim.

Thank you na Maulu tumas.
Statement by Hon Allan Bird.”

The End!

As I said before, National Alliance’s (NA) chances of forming the next government will rise if NA leadership is given to Alan Bird.

The average incumbent MP turn over rate in PNG is 50%. In other words, about 50% of MPs lose their seat every election. This has been the case without exception since the first post independent election in 1977. This turn over rate is one of the highest in the world.

2002 is considered the worst election ever, where more than 70% of the MPs lost their seats, and elections in six seats in Southern Highlands were declared failed because of the widespread irregularities.

The high turn over rate shows that Papua New Guineans have no problem with replacing leaders they don’t like. But the 50% voters choose to replace the 50% voted out are no better than those voted out. With a very few exceptions.

This begs the question: are there any good people left in PNG to choose from?

Why is it that despite the high turn over rates, the next cohort elected to the parliament do not improve governance in the country?

Out of the 180 countries Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index always ranks PNG below 100 annually (1 being the least corrupt).

If the representatives (MPs) voters choose form turn out to be inherently corrupt, does that imply that the society is inherently corrupt? Or at least pervasively corrupt with a few exceptions?

It’s hard to argue otherwise. It seems to be that PNG leaders, selected from among their own people, by their own people, turn out to be corruption. The society itself has to be so corrupt for one to pick predominantly corrupt representatives.

Facing up to an uncomfortable possibility that the country is pervasively corrupt is important for the country to begin to move the conversation beyond the 111 MPs, to start to talk about the everyday corruption in everyday life.

As the late Prime Minister Mekere Mourata put it, corruption in PNG is systemic and systematic. Meaning corruption is pervasive and organised.

It’s not few people doing the wrong things. It’s most people doing the wrong things.

Coming to work late and leaving early. Spewing betel nut along the corridors of the buildings. Using the office printer to print your sunburn’s volleyball draws. Giving the job to your wantok over a more qualified candidate. Contracting your inlaw to mend the office fence at the work place. Buying stationaries from your tribesmen company which is more expensive than the shop down the road. These every day less corrupt practices breeds the grand corruption that you fight against. It is not possible for you to be engaged in these “petty corruption” and expect to elect a good leader.

Every Papua New Guinean has a responsibility to improve his own life. To become less corrupt. Only then do we stand a chance of choosing good leaders.

It’s the society, not the leaders, who are corrupt. Because leaders are selected from among the people.