Academia Nomad

I once listened to a talk about challenges women face in elections. The case study was on the Oro Provincial Seat of 2017. I am from Oro so I listened with interest. I was disappointed at the end because the findings were not a good reflection of Oro politics.

The study suggested that the female candidate, Jean Parkop, Powes Parkop’s wife who came second lost because she was a woman.

This couldn’t be far from the truth.

Jean Parkop lost because she contested a seat whose incumbent MP was Gary Juffa. The Gary Juffa of 2012 – 2017 was so popular that it was impossible for any candidate to win against him. Jean Parkop did not lose because she was woman. She lost because she was up against the most popular PNG politican. Juffa was so popular he could have won the National Capital District seat if wanted to contest it.

How popular was Gary Juffa in Oro Province?

This story will put things into context. The day after nominations open in Oro Province, my cousin drove into town. He saw the posters of Oro Candidates up on public walls and shops in town, but Gary Juffa’s poster was not among them.

Curious he asked by-standers why Gary Juffa’s poster was no where to be seen. One of by standers who resides in town said:

“As soon as Juffa’s posters went up, youths, kids, parents, street guys, mothers, fathers, ripped them and took them home. They want to put it on their houses, shops, trucks.”

Everyone wanted a bit of Gary Juffa. People who never met Juffa personally, but wanted to associate themselves with Juffa.

One of the things you must do if you have ambitions to contest seats in PNG is to be realistic about your chances of winning, but also the chances that the incumbent will lose. If the incumbent is too popular, you probably shouldn’t contest the same seat.

You cannot win a seat held but Alan Bird, Tom Lino, Justin Thackenko, Peter O’Neill, James Marape, Richard Maru and perhaps John Rosso in 2023.

Yes some of these leaders are corrupt and should be replaced. Unfortunately majority of the voters in their electorates have a different criteria on who they think is deserving of their votes. And these voters views matter. They get to decide who becomes the MP.

Follow politics through out the five years. Do your homework. Do your ground work. But also be realistic about your chances of winning. This goes for both male and female candidates, but more so for the female candidates. Because when the election is over, we will be arguing about why women didn’t win the election – not the other way around.

Avoid unwindable seats.

The PNG incumbent politicians are seeking re-election. Generally there are two narratives in their campaigns.

The first group tell their voters why they didn’t deliver services (for non-PNG readers, PNG politicians are enabled by law to provide services apart from their law making duties).

This first group blames O’Neill or Marape, depending on whether they were in the opposition with O’Neill or in the government with Marape, for the failure to deliver services. O’Neill was the prime minister from August 2017 – May 2019, and was replaced by James Marape, who served from May 2019 to 2022. O’Neill moved to the opposition after he was replaced.

This first group blame just about everything except their own failures, mismanagement, misuse and corruption.

The second group pay their nomination fees, turn to their supporters, and tell them:

“If you liked the job I did, give me the mandate to serve you another term”.

The likes you find in this second group includes Alan Bird, Richard Maru, Rainbow Paita, Dr Tom Lino (and the late Sam Basil). No excuses. No blame game. Just records to prove or disprove their claims.

Below is the speech Alan Bird (of the second group) gave after his nomination. Alan Bird is the incumbent governor for East Sepik.

By Alan Bird:

“I nominated yesterday quietly in Wewak because I didn’t want our supporters clogging up the traffic like we did in 2017.

Today morning we launch our campaign in Maprik. Simply because there are only 24 candidates nominating for Maprik Open seat. Friday is also a quiet day in Maprik so we can clog up the streets.

We are planning for 40-50,000 supporters to come and support National Alliance and PANGU. This will be the largest gathering in Sepik history.

I wish all intending candidates the best and let’s support a free and fair election. Let’s do this without violence. I shook hands and wished several Regional Candidates good luck in the elections this afternoon.

It’s been a great honor representing and speaking on behalf of the Sepik people. I know I won’t please everyone. I have never required Police escorts to travel the highways.

When I stop and people greet me, I know that I am doing the right thing by ordinary Sepik folks. I thank you all for your support.

I have a simple message for our people: you can trust me to look after your future. Let me finish what I started in 2018.

I have not stolen any money and none of my family or relatives have received a single government contract since my election. I have also brought record amounts of money to our province.

The future of the Sepik people is safe in my hands. I have always made decisions in the interest of ordinary citizens.

My only interest is in moving the Sepik Region forward by supporting the hard working rural people so that every citizen has an equal opportunity. Sepik should be for all of us, not just the privileged few. This is how we can contribute to our country.

By making Sepik strong and self sufficient. That is our vision. We are strong people, we like to work for ourselves and this is what we have been trying to achieve.

I ask you all to trust me once more and let me finish what I started in 2018.

Transparency, honesty and public service to empower our people and local government. That’s what I stand for.

Yupla save pinis lo mi, yupla lukim mi pinis. Mi fight hard lo yupla pipol blo Sepik na Papua New Guinea wantaim. Givim mi spear wanpla more taim na larim mi pinisim wok mi startim.

Thank you na Maulu tumas.
Statement by Hon Allan Bird.”

The End!

As I said before, National Alliance’s (NA) chances of forming the next government will rise if NA leadership is given to Alan Bird.

The average incumbent MP turn over rate in PNG is 50%. In other words, about 50% of MPs lose their seat every election. This has been the case without exception since the first post independent election in 1977. This turn over rate is one of the highest in the world.

2002 is considered the worst election ever, where more than 70% of the MPs lost their seats, and elections in six seats in Southern Highlands were declared failed because of the widespread irregularities.

The high turn over rate shows that Papua New Guineans have no problem with replacing leaders they don’t like. But the 50% voters choose to replace the 50% voted out are no better than those voted out. With a very few exceptions.

This begs the question: are there any good people left in PNG to choose from?

Why is it that despite the high turn over rates, the next cohort elected to the parliament do not improve governance in the country?

Out of the 180 countries Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index always ranks PNG below 100 annually (1 being the least corrupt).

If the representatives (MPs) voters choose form turn out to be inherently corrupt, does that imply that the society is inherently corrupt? Or at least pervasively corrupt with a few exceptions?

It’s hard to argue otherwise. It seems to be that PNG leaders, selected from among their own people, by their own people, turn out to be corruption. The society itself has to be so corrupt for one to pick predominantly corrupt representatives.

Facing up to an uncomfortable possibility that the country is pervasively corrupt is important for the country to begin to move the conversation beyond the 111 MPs, to start to talk about the everyday corruption in everyday life.

As the late Prime Minister Mekere Mourata put it, corruption in PNG is systemic and systematic. Meaning corruption is pervasive and organised.

It’s not few people doing the wrong things. It’s most people doing the wrong things.

Coming to work late and leaving early. Spewing betel nut along the corridors of the buildings. Using the office printer to print your sunburn’s volleyball draws. Giving the job to your wantok over a more qualified candidate. Contracting your inlaw to mend the office fence at the work place. Buying stationaries from your tribesmen company which is more expensive than the shop down the road. These every day less corrupt practices breeds the grand corruption that you fight against. It is not possible for you to be engaged in these “petty corruption” and expect to elect a good leader.

Every Papua New Guinean has a responsibility to improve his own life. To become less corrupt. Only then do we stand a chance of choosing good leaders.

It’s the society, not the leaders, who are corrupt. Because leaders are selected from among the people.

There were many tributes written about Sam Basil, including one by Sam Koim, the Commissioner of Internal Revenue Commission, which was re-published here.

In this article, I will talk about the impact of Sam Basil’s passing on the political party he formed in 2020 and was leading into the 2022 elections before the tragic accident that took his life – The United Labour Party (ULP).

The nationwide outpouring of mourning and sympathy for Sam Basil is only second to Sir Mekere Mourata and Sir Michael Somare in 2020.

There is a difference though. Both Somare and Mourata were former prime ministers (PM) well into their old age. Sam Basil, on the other hand was young, and had the ambitions to become prime minister. He was a life full of potential, taken too young.

This outpouring of sympathy has an immense impact on candidates endorsed by United Labour Party. The profile of the party has shot up astronomically since the death of Basil on 11 May 2022.

Orange, the ULP colour is dominating PNG social media. Those who have not heard of URP, or didn’t care about URP before, are now hearing about it on a daily basis.

On 16 May multitudes were waiting at the Jackson’s International Airport drapped in PNG flags, Morobe flags (Sam Basil’s province) and orange shirts and hats, as they waited Sam Basil’s body to arrive from Morobe.

There’s a three days National Haus Krai (mourning) at the John Guise Indoor Stadium where people from all walks of life are coming to pay their respects. The stadium is draped in orange. Even the ULP candidate for Port Moresby’s name was announced during one of the performances which he organised for the mourning. He got a national televised publicity whilst other contestants are waiting for 19 May 2022 to start campaigns when the nominations open.

Getting a free national coverage during events like this is not unique. But in PNG, there’s an added layer.

Death and mourning is a very significant moment. It’s a time where arguments are resolved, mistakes of the past are forgiven, and support comes from those you expect the least from.

How do these moments translate into political capital?

Take Dame Carol Kidu as an example. Whenever you have the chance to speak to Carol, ask her how she got elected in 2002. She will tell you she won because of “sympathy votes.” This is a loosely translated phrase from the Tok Pisin phrase “bel sore” vote. Out of compassion and sympathy for your loss, people will support you, including voting you.

Carol Kidu’s husband Sir Buri Kidu was the first national Chief Justice of PNG. He was expected to contested the Port Moresby South electorate in 2002 where his village Hanuabada is located. He unfortunately died in 1994. Carol Kidu then contested the seat in 2002 to fulfil her husband’s ambitions. And out of “sympathy” or “bel sore” for her husband, she was elected. Carol then had to work hard to get political support to get re-elected in 2007 on her own merits. She retired from politics in 2012.

With all due respect, Sam Basil was not popular since 2017 when he switched from opposition to O’Neill led government. This was because since his election to parliament in 2012, Sam Basil was a vocal critic of Somare Government (2012 – 2011), and O’Neill Government (2012-2017). Basil was synonymous with anti-corruption, and was tipped to be the next prime minister.

This support was evident in the success of PANGU Party in 2017 election. PANGU at the time didn’t have any MP in parliament, so Basil left his party at the time – PNG Party – and took leadership of PANGU and led it into the 2017 election. He emerged with 14 MPs, a respectable number in a parliament that has 111 MPs, and where no party gets more than 30 seats.

Basil then tried to form the government but failed, and O’Neill’s People Congress Party with 28 MPs formed the government. Basil then did the unthinkable. After briefly remaining in the opposition, towards the end of 2017, he took PANGU party MPs and moved over to join the O’Neill Government.

It was at this point that he lost the popularity among Papua New Guineans. When the government changed in 2019, Basil played his cards and got the deputy PM post.

Then in 2020 he left his deputy PM seat and attempted to remove James Marape as PM. When this failed, he returned to his position as deputy PM along side James Marape.

Basil again lost the respect among many Papua New Guineans. ULP was not that popular among Papua New Guineans for these reasons. Many saw Basil as lacking integrity for constantly switching alliances. This was until a few days ago when Sam Basil lost his life in a car accident.

Now with all the sympathy pouring in, Sam Basil’s candidates will enjoy similar success to that of Carol Kidu in 2002. Sympathy votes will increase ULP candidates chances of winning. There are three preferences in PNG elections. In many places, voters will express their “bel sore” with one of these preferences by voting a ULP candidate.

When I first posted a short extract of third article on Facebook to get a reaction, many commented with phrases like “that was what I was thinking.” This means it’s a popular opinion. Interesting if it translates into reality.

This article was first posted by Sam Koim on his Facebook post.

By Sam Koim

TRIBUTE TO late SAM BASIL, MY BROTHER.

We met on the battlefield, not against each other, but against an invisible enemy that still threatens the wellbeing of our nation today. I was a rookie State Lawyer and he was a firebrand opposition Member of Parliament. We shared a common passion to combat the invisible enemy – corruption.

When the Government changed in August 2011, he was appointed the coveted economic Ministry of National Planning. That department was fraught with controversy and his first assignment was to do some cleaning up. This Kumul Blong Morobe, together with the then Attorney General, called me up to draft a NEC Submission to establish a team to investigate the allegations of corruption at his department.

Inexperienced and armed with limited precedence, yet driven by a desire to combat corruption, I designed a multi-agency team structure that would draw resources and powers from multiple State agencies to establish a dragnet in sweeping corruption at all its multiple facets. I delivered the draft submission the next day and advised the two ministers to find a retired judge or an experienced person to lead the team. He insisted I take it up because I designed the investigation structure. I declined but he asked me to think it over a few days and revert to him.

After two days, he called me up and asked if I had made up my mind. I was into my third year of working then and wasn’t confident of taking up such an onerous responsibility. I told him I wasn’t confident of chairing the team but could assist as a team member. However, this first termer MP who had spent four years in opposition then, saw something in me that I didn’t at that time. To force me to take up the role, he threatened to resign from his ministry. He told me “brother, I came to National Planning because we were going to clean it up and if you cannot help me do it, then maski mi go back bencher.” That was really hard to bargain so I reluctantly took it up and the rest is history.

I had it in me, but it took this National Leader with the seeing eyes to see it. He identified a raw talent in me and launched me forth. We have no blood, tribal, political, or business connection. I am not one of his voters or political supporters –something that unfortunately takes precedence in some cases.

Since then, I’ve always strived to live up to the trust he had on me by performing well wherever I am deployed. In turn, he respects my apolitical distance and professional judgement.

I am forever grateful to this giant PNGean.

Our bond is a shared desire to make a difference in this country. Investigation Taskforce Sweep was a testament of this common bond of purpose.

He reached the top yet remained humble to be reachable by his largely rural people. From my apolitical distance, I watched him plied his craft in politics from a single MP to resurrecting a dead party in Pangu, to reconstituting a destabilised group in ULP within days, and was on his way to be a force in this election when tragedy struck him.

He had more to give to this country. It is indeed a great loss to this country.

I have been privileged and proud to call him ‘brother’. There were times when he talked and I listened. There were times when I spoke and he listened. There were times when we both got along. He gave me every reason to call him my brother. I will surely miss him.

Rest Easy, Brother!
Rest Easy, Deputy Prime Minister!